罗兰贝格: 2025 年欧洲私募股权展望 (英文 28 页)

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今年的主要信息包括：

→ 超过90%的受访专业人士预计，私募股权（PE）相关的并购活动将会增加，这主要得益于近年来被推迟的投资组合退出，以及融资条件的改善，包括利率稳定和债务融资的可获得性提高。

→ 技术、软件和数字解决方案以及制药和医疗保健仍然是私募股权投资最具吸引力的行业，因为它们具有韧性和可扩展性。这些行业的估值倍数预计会上升，而汽车等其他行业可能会（进一步）下降。

→ 中小型股板块继续被视为最有希望的资产类别，因为它们对债务的依赖性较低。基础设施投资的融资前景同样乐观，而大型交易由于需要大量的资本，仍然面临更大的限制——尽管预计情况会在2025年从当前状况有所改善。

→ 数字化、数据分析、附加收购和卓越的商业运营预计将成为未来价值创造的最重要驱动力。

→ 一级投资和二级收购预计将成为2025年最重要的交易来源。多数股权投资预计将提供巨大的价值创造潜力。由于许多私募股权退出在2024年被推迟，二级收购将变得重要。

→ 二级收购和家族企业收购预计将推动交易来源。专注于韧性的措施，如投资于稳定的企业和附加收购，被视为防范潜在经济衰退的有效策略。

This year's key messages include

→ Over 90 % of the professionals surveyed anticipate increased M&A activity involving private equity (PE), driven by portfolio exits deferred from recent years and by improved financing conditions, including stabilized interest rates and better debt financing availability.

→ Technology, software & digital solutions and pharma-ceuticals & healthcare remain the most attractive sectors for PE investments because of their resilience and scalability. Valuation multiples for these industries are expected to rise, while other sectors, such as automotive, may see (further) declines.

→ Small- and mid-cap segments continue to be seen as the most promising asset classes as they are less debt dependent. The financing outlook for infrastructure investments is likewise positive, while large-cap deals continue to face heavier constraints due to high-volume capital requirements – even though they are expected

to improve from current conditions in 2025.

→ Digitalization, data analytics, add-on acquisitions and commercial excellence are expected to be the most important drivers of value creation going forward.

→ Primary investments and secondary buyouts are expected to be the most important deal sources in 2025. Majority investments are forecast to offer significant value creation potential. Secondary buyouts will become relevant as many PE exits were postponed in 2024.

→ Secondary buyouts and family-owned company acquisitions are expected to drive deal sourcing. Resilience-focused measures such as investing in stable businesses and add-on acquisitions are seen as effective strategies to guard against potential economic downturns.